Primer Congreso Nacional de Cambio Climático

25 al 28 de Octubre. CREDIA, La Ceiba.

Descripción corta
Muestra la distribución de la precipitación media anual del país, tomando como referencia la información histórica de 162 estaciones.
Relevancia o pertinencia El indicador describe la precipitación total sobre el territorio. La cual, es un componente importante del clima y cambios en la precipitación pueden tener un rango amplio directo e indirecto de efectos en el ambiente y la sociedad.

Nombre del Indicador: Precipitación media anual (mm)

Tema Recursos hídricos

Interpretación
A nivel nacional para un período de 30 años (definido por la Organización Meteorológica Mundial) se puede determinar que la precipitación media anual alcanza valores de unos 1599.95 mm/año, con mínimas de 939.84mm/año y máximas de 3125.81mm/año, definiendo al país con una amplia disponibilidad, considerando su régimen natural, lo que representa una oportunidad para una gestión integral y a la vez un reto para aprovechar eficientemente el recurso, sobre todo en zonas donde su concentración se torna crítica.

Mapa: http://hidro.sinia.gob.hn/maps/68/view

Meta: No aplica.

Tendencia y desafíos: No aplica.

Alcance (qué mide el indicador): No aplica.

Limitaciones (qué no mide el indicador):
La recolección de la información de precipitación, los análisis estadísticos y homogeneidad en formatos de la información, requiere esfuerzos mayores, hasta que se puede estandarizar las mediciones de las variables climáticas.

Fórmula de cálculo: No aplica.

Calculo
Con la información de las 162 estaciones que pasaron las pruebas de calidad, se inició un ejercicio que implicó realizar diversos tipos de interpolación espacial, de manera de poder comparar los resultados y evaluar la mejor respuesta.

En el proceso se ha aplicado la herramienta GeoStatistical Analyst con la que el programa ArcGIS cuenta, misma permite aplicar diversos tipos de métodos de interpolación, entre los que se pueden nombrar:

Métodos deterministicos como son:
• Inverse Distance Weighting,
• Global Polinomial Interpolation,
• Local Polinomial Interpolation,
• Radial Basis Functions.
Métodos geoestadisticos:
• Kriging,
• CoKriging.
• Interpolación con barreras:
• Kernel Smoothing,
• Diffusion Kernel.

El método que mejor respuesta presentó fue el Kriging en su variante CoKriging, este es un procedimiento de interpolación en estado avanzado que genera una superficie aproximadamente de un juego disperso de puntos con valores de Precipitación. A diferencia de otros métodos de interpolación espacial, el Kriging involucra una investigación interactiva del comportamiento espacial del fenómeno representado por los valores a interpolar antes de seleccionar el mejor método de cálculo para generar la superficie de producto.

Para análisis de tendencias en anomalías, se deberá considerar los 30 años establecidos por la Organización Mundial de Meteorología para la comparación.

Definición de variables: No aplica.

Cobertura geográfica: Nacional.

Fuente de los datos:
Secretaría de Energía, Recursos Naturales, Ambiente y Minas (MiAmbiente).
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN).
Empresa Nacional de Energía Eléctrica (ENEE).
Servicio Autónomo Nacional de Acueductos y Alcantarillado (SANAA).
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras (UNAH).
La información de las instituciones fue recopilada en la Evaluación de los Recursos Hídricos en su régimen natural, elaborado por MiAmbiente-UNAH con el financiamiento del Proyecto Fondo de Adaptación.

Tipo de fuente de Información: La información se obtiene a través de registros históricos de precipitación por cada una de las instituciones.

Disponibilidad de los datos (cualitativo): La serie actualmente disponible comprende un periodo de 30 años.

Periodicidad de los datos: Mensual.

Período de la serie tiempo actualmente disponible: Información histórica de 1970-2012 con variaciones en las estaciones.

Periodicidad de actualización: La Evaluación de los Recursos Hídricos en su régimen natural se realiza en el marco de la actualización del Balance Hídrico Nacional, el cual se actualiza decenalmente.

Datos del técnico especialista: Secretaría de Energía, Recursos Naturales, Ambiente y Minas (MiAmbiente).

Ultima fecha de actualización de la ficha: Julio 2015.

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